I make my belated debut in baseball commentary on The Cheap Seats with a World Series prediction, partially because – and I plead guilty – to being a little exhausted with baseball as the season came to a close. Being a lifelong Braves fan, I’ve sat and taken the last few seasons with a grain of salt, knowing I was privileged and spoiled with playoff appearances year after year growing up. A last-ditch run at the Wild Card drained me this year, and I just didn’t pay as close attention to the other series as I’m used to doing.

I have NEVER missed a World Series, however, and I won’t start now, even though this year’s Fall Classic features the hated New York Yankees and one of Atlanta’s arch nemeses, the Philadelphia Phillies. Seeing as I have love for neither, I should be able to make an objective analysis.

I am picking the Phillies to win the Series, and while I actually would love to pick them in five games, I am afraid of the criticism of my pick and I’ll go with them in 6, if the Yankees go with CC Sabathia on short rest again instead of naming a fourth starter.

I don’t want to be blinded by the gilded, star-studded lineup the Yanks field, because I think the Phillies lineup is almost as good itself, particularly with the pickup of Raul Ibanez and the improved play of Jayson Werth.  Ryan Howard, Chase Utley and Jimmy Rollins can easily stand toe-to-toe in a 7-game series against Mark Teixeira, A-Rod and Derek Jeter (though don’t underestimate Jeter’s playoff magic, he’s one of the greatest of all-time and an absolute wonder to watch).  Melky Cabrera on the Yanks doesn’t impress me, and Nick Swisher just hasn’t gotten it going in the postseason. Matt Stairs off the Philly bench is a huge asset, especially in the AL ballpark in New York, and he can crank one off the bench. Yes, pretty much all the Yankees can crank one…

I look to Cliff Lee as my X factor in this series, and the only reason I have the Phils in six games is because I think Cole Hamels and whomever faces Sabathia in Game 4 are beatable by the Yanks. Cliff Lee is capable of going toe to toe with Sabathia in Game 1.

Two lefty former Indians teammates, each with a Cy Young Award? Juicy if you’re a baseball fan. But I think his hefty contract and last year’s performance with the Brewers tend to sway people in Sabathia’s favor without giving Lee a second glance. He’s been MONEY in the playoffs, 2-0 in three starts with an abyss-mal .074 ERA and a strikeout to walk ratio of 20:3. TWENTY strikeouts, three walks. Sickening. He struck out 10 Dodgers in his only NLCS appearance, where he went 8 innings, and he’s won his only start in the new Yankee Stadium, going 6 innings and allowing only one run, on only one home run.

Plenty of home runs will be hit in this series, and I give plenty of credence to the possibility of A.J. Burnett letting one of his two games get out of hand. I’m thinking he’ll win Game 2 at home against Hamels, but familiarity will help the Phils in his second appearance. Either Pedro Martinez OR Joe Blanton can hang with Andy Pettitte, don’t rule those guys out.

These games will likely come down to the bullpens, and if the starters for the Phils pitch late into games like they have been, I think the bullpen for the Phils has an edge over the Yanks. Mariano Rivera cannot pitch two innings each in four games this Series, he just won’t be able to do it. The setup guys for New York have been unimpressive recently in the playoffs, and the Phillies are VERY capable of scoring runs late against shaky relievers. Rivera is a moot point if New York can’t get a lead to him. If Brad Lidge can continue his solid playoff performance, the Phils will win games.

I’m picking Philadelphia to win the 2009 World Series in 6 games over the New York Yankees, and believe me, I’m not biased in having to choose between these two teams. I gain very little greater enjoyment in seeing the Phillies win a championship than I do the Yankees.